Wednesday, July 05, 2006

World Cup Update

Thanks to the long weekend, I've not been around much lately, but I thought it would be worthwhile to check in on how the ELO rating system did in predicting the quarterfinals. If you include the 100 point home field bonus for Germany against Argentina, then it nailed 3 of the 4 finals, with only France's dominating performance against Brasil going against what the system saw.

As for yesterday's semi-final, Italy went in at 1989 (based on my calcs, the site hasn't updated) with Germany at 1969 (plus a 100 point home field advantage). This yeilded a win probability for Germany of 61.13. However, ELO didn't guess right, as Italy advanced on a spectacular goal in the 128th minute. (Plus another in the 130th...) Italy's victory brought them up to an ELO of 2067.

As for today's game, ELO gives Portugal a ranking of 2009 and France a ranking of 2012, making for a virtual 50-50 toss-up (50.037% for France). So it should be an exciting match....

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