Wisdom of the Crowds? iPod edition

I came across this thread today, which catalogs Apple enthusiasts' responses to the rumors of Apple's new product in 2001... the iPod. It's a fantastic read. Some choice predictions from the first few pages:

1. hey - heres an idea Apple - rather than enter the world of gimmicks and toys, why dont you spend a little more time sorting out your pathetically expensive and crap server line up? or are you really aiming to become a glorified consumer gimmicks firm?
2. I still can't believe this! All this hype for something so ridiculous! Who cares about an MP3 player? I want something new! I want them to think differently!Why oh why would they do this?! It's so wrong! It's so stupid!
3. gee! an mp3 player with a HD! how original! kinda reminds me of a JUKEBOX i once knew..
4. There are already two products similar to this on the market. The Nomad Jukebox and the Archos Jukebox which can come with a 20 gig HD. The iPod is obviously alot cooler and has firewire, but it is far from revolutionary. I for one am disappointed and think that apple is making a mistake by trying to get into this market.
5. This Christmas you will see mp3 players be commoditized. Meaning that the players from Korea will be way less expensive tha iPod. The real money is in DRM and distribution (ala Real Musicnet). If Apple were smart they would be focusing on high gross revenue from services rather than a playback device.

Not everyone was down on it, though. Here's some comments with people with better foresight, or just more faith in Apple:

1. We live in the YEAR 2001... not 6000 years from now when ridiculously awsome technology will exist. No other mp3 player has a harddrive like this... 5gigs... **** yeah. A rio of the same size offers 64megs. Jesum Crow, get over your moping.. .this is revolutionary.... plus it's just the beggining. This device litterally bests anything on the market by about 100x
2. 5GB in a little tiny thing like that, it's amazing. I don't see anyone else making something like that. Do you?
3. As long as apple markets it effectively, I think it's gonna do really well.
4. This thing's too cool. It makes my Rio 500 (recently upgraded to hold 128 MB of songs) look pathetic. It's beautiful. It looks too easy to use. It has all sorts of cool features that I will never live without again. This is a home run

Note that Apple stock was trading at $8/share in October 2001, at the time of the thread and the iPod release, and is currently at $89/share. I wonder if anyone above put there money where their mouths were...

What did 37 million people do on Tuesday?

They watched the season premier of American Idol, with over 37 million total viewers and 41 million people watching the final half-hour, according to overnight numbers reported at Zap2It. What is most amazing is that the season finale last season had only 36 million viewers.

Those ratings numbers are just outstanding. There are so many TV programs these days, and so many other entertainment options, that American Idol's continued (and growing) ratings success is just incredible. Personally, I watched season 3 fairly regularly and was totally addicted, so I've tried not to get too into the subsequent seasons, though I admit to following the show even when not watching regularly.

I'd guess that the "family-friendly" nature of the show is what leads to its large numbers, but that wouldn't really explain the 9:30-10:00 success. I'm guessing (hoping) that parents aren't keeping their kids up until 10 just to watch the first round rejects trying out in Minnesota.

What's more, the fact that there are so many entertainment options available should actually diminish the importance of being family-friendly. The classic example is that of apple pie, which for years was America's favorite desert. (Note: this analogy is someone else's, but I can't remember where I heard/read it, despite the vast resources of the internet.) One story for the decline in popularity of apple pie is that with advancements in refridgeration techniques, apple pie declined in popularity because while it was everyone's second or third favorite desert, it was not the #1 desert for many people.

Thus, when refridgeration techniques were less advanced, and it was only possible to store one desert for the whole family, apple pie was king. It was a great compromise. But once it became possible to keep 3 or 4 different types of deserts ready to eat, apple pie dropped off because everyone was able to choose their #1 desert. TV is not really any different.

In the days when families had one TV and no computers and video games, families watched whatever was best for the group as a whole, but now that there are so many different options available to everyone, the advantage of being "family-friendly" is gone. If you are the #2 option for everyone in the house, no one watches you. Before, if you were #2 for everyone in the house, there was a good chance that everyone watched you, as long as there was sufficient disagreement about what was #1.

So we can't explain American Idol's success as it being enjoyable for everyone in the house, but not everyone's favorite. With so many options and outlets available today, there's little need for compromise. If 37 million people watched American Idol on Tuesday night (and probably about the same number last night), then that tells me that over 10% of Americans think that's the #1 thing to do between 8pm and 10pm.